Fenerbahce Istanbul — Liverpool FC: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
19.0%
Home win
Fenerbahce Istanbul
X
21.0%
Draw
W2
60.0%
Away win
Liverpool FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X281.0%
Both teams to score
Yes62.8%
Totals 2.5
Over66.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.0% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 81.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
Goal distribution model
Fenerbahce Istanbul × Liverpool FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
6.7%
0:2
8.1%
0:3
6.0%
0:4
3.3%
0:5
1.5%
1
1:0
3.3%
1:1
9.3%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
7.2%
1:4
4.0%
1:5
1.8%
2
2:0
2.3%
2:1
5.2%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.4%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
0.9%
3:1
2.1%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.3%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.7%
1:19.3%
0:28.1%
1:37.2%
0:16.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Galatasaray 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Alanyaspor 3:0
- 10.10.2026 away Rizespor 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Eyupspor 8:0
- 14.09.2026 away Gaziantep 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Brighton 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Brentford 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Man City 0:3
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.