FC Porto — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.4%
Home win
FC Porto
X
27.3%
Draw
W2
28.2%
Away win
SSC Napoli
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1272.7%
Both teams to score
Yes59.8%
Totals 2.5
Over56.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.8% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
FC Porto × SSC Napoli
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.9%
0:1
5.3%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
1.9%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.3%
1:1
12.9%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
3.1%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.0%
3:1
5.1%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.9%
2:19.3%
1:07.3%
2:07.3%
1:27.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:0
- 10.10.2026 away Maritimo 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Benfica 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Casa Pia 4:1
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Roma 3:3
- 17.10.2026 away Venezia 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Frosinone 3:0
- 20.09.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.