PSV Eindhoven — Club Brugge: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
45.0%
Home win
PSV Eindhoven
X
23.1%
Draw
W2
31.8%
Away win
Club Brugge
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.9%
Both teams to score
Yes72.1%
Totals 2.5
Over72.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.2% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Goal distribution model
PSV Eindhoven × Club Brugge
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.3%
0:1
3.1%
0:2
3.4%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
3.9%
1:1
9.2%
1:2
7.0%
1:3
4.0%
1:4
1.7%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.9%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.1%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
3.3%
3:1
5.7%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.8%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.2%
2:18.4%
2:27.1%
1:27.0%
3:15.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Feyenoord 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Den Haag 1:2
- 09.10.2026 home Heerenveen 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home St Truiden 3:2
- 10.10.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 4:1
- 20.09.2026 home Genk 3:0
- 13.09.2026 home Antwerp 3:1
- 04.09.2026 away Lommel SK 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.