RB Leipzig — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
16.3%
Home win
RB Leipzig
X
20.2%
Draw
W2
63.5%
Away win
Manchester City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X283.7%
Both teams to score
Yes67.3%
Totals 2.5
Over73.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.5% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 83.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
Goal distribution model
RB Leipzig × Manchester City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
4.5%
0:2
7.2%
0:3
6.0%
0:4
3.8%
0:5
1.9%
1
1:0
1.6%
1:1
8.4%
1:2
9.1%
1:3
7.7%
1:4
4.8%
1:5
2.4%
2
2:0
1.8%
2:1
4.6%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
4.9%
2:4
3.1%
2:5
1.5%
3
3:0
0.8%
3:1
1.9%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
2.1%
3:4
1.3%
3:5
0.7%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:29.1%
1:18.4%
1:37.7%
0:27.2%
0:36.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Elversberg 4:0
- 17.10.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:6
- 10.10.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 6:0
- 20.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:2
- 13.09.2026 home Hamburg 5:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Aston Villa 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Ipswich 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Liverpool 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.