AEK Athens — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 04.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
12.2%
Home win
AEK Athens
X
14.4%
Draw
W2
73.3%
Away win
Real Madrid
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X287.8%
Both teams to score
Yes62.2%
Totals 2.5
Over74.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 26.7% |
| 12 | 85.6% | |
| X2 | 87.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.2% / 1.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Goal distribution model
AEK Athens × Real Madrid
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.8%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
8.0%
0:3
7.5%
0:4
5.3%
0:5
3.0%
1
1:0
2.4%
1:1
5.9%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
8.2%
1:4
5.7%
1:5
3.2%
2
2:0
1.2%
2:1
3.4%
2:2
4.7%
2:3
4.5%
2:4
3.1%
2:5
1.8%
3
3:0
0.4%
3:1
1.2%
3:2
1.7%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.3%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:28.7%
1:38.2%
0:28.0%
0:37.5%
1:15.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.11.2026
AEK Athens
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 20.10.2026 away Manchester City 1:5
- 14.10.2026 away FC Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3
- 08.09.2026 home LASK Linz 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Barcelona 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Sevilla 4:1
- 10.10.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Ath Madrid 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.50 → now 7.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.