Match intelligence

FCI Levadia Tallinn — IFK Goteborg: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
FCI Levadia Tallinn1
:
3IFK Goteborg
Locked signal X2 Probability 69.1% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 30.9% Home win FCI Levadia Tallinn
X 24.1% Draw
W2 45.0% Away win IFK Goteborg
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1276.8%
Both teams to score
Yes64.2%
Totals 2.5
Over62.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X56.3%
1276.8%
X267.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No64.2% / 35.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.0% / 4.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 83.5% / 16.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 62.9% / 37.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 40.7% / 59.3%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 22.7% / 77.3%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 11.1% / 88.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

FCI Levadia Tallinn × IFK Goteborg
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.0%
0:1 6.7%
0:2 6.0%
0:3 3.5%
0:4 1.5%
0:5 0.5%
1
1:0 5.7%
1:1 10.3%
1:2 8.9%
1:3 5.2%
1:4 2.3%
1:5 0.8%
2
2:0 4.4%
2:1 7.6%
2:2 6.7%
2:3 3.9%
2:4 1.7%
2:5 0.6%
3
3:0 2.2%
3:1 3.8%
3:2 3.3%
3:3 1.9%
3:4 0.8%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 0.8%
4:1 1.4%
4:2 1.2%
4:3 0.7%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.4%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.3%
1:28.9%
2:17.6%
0:16.7%
2:26.7%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

FCI Levadia Tallinn face IFK Goteborg in the UEFA Conference League qualification round, with the available assessment pointing to a competitive match and a slight edge for the visitors. Confidence is moderate, so the balance remains relatively close rather than strongly one-sided.

The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. IFK Goteborg may be better placed to avoid defeat, but FCI Levadia Tallinn have enough attacking potential to keep the contest uncertain. A draw is a realistic possibility, while a narrow away win also fits the overall outlook.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First leg result

In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round on July 21, 2026, FCI Levadia earned a 2-1 away victory against IFK Göteborg thanks to a brace from Wendell.

Availability

Red card for IFK Göteborg

IFK Göteborg captain August Erlingmark was sent off deep into stoppage time during the first leg against FCI Levadia.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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