FC Kairat Almaty — PFC Levski Sofia: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.4% |
| 12 | 69.9% | |
| X2 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.0% / 79.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Kairat Almaty and PFC Levski Sofia appear evenly matched in this UEFA Champions League qualification tie. The available assessment points to a moderate-confidence contest, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That balance should make the tactical approach important, particularly in the opening stages, when both teams may prioritise structure and avoid giving the opponent an early route into the game.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. Scores such as 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0 reflect a match that could remain close throughout, with small details potentially shaping the outcome. The market signal gives FC Kairat Almaty a degree of protection at home, but the broader picture still suggests caution rather than a clear favourite. A draw or a narrow result in favour of FC Kairat Almaty fits the available indicators, while PFC Levski Sofia remain capable of keeping the tie competitive.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
PFC Levski Sofia secured a 1-0 victory against FC Kairat Almaty in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League third qualifying round tie.
Venue adjustment for home leg
FC Kairat Almaty host the return leg at the Turkistan Arena, as their regular home stadium was unavailable due to a scheduled concert event.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.