FC Iberia 1999 — Larne FC: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Iberia 1999 hold a slight but high-confidence edge over Larne FC in this UEFA Europa League qualification tie. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with the home side better placed in the overall balance. The 1X signal also suggests that FC Iberia 1999 are more likely to avoid defeat than Larne FC, although the advantage is not described as overwhelming.
The scoring outlook remains relatively open. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so there is no clear indication that either side will keep the other quiet. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0, which reflects a contest where FC Iberia 1999 may have the stronger platform but Larne FC can still remain competitive. A narrow home win or a draw therefore fits the analytical picture better than a decisive result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.