FC Groningen — PEC Zwolle: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.3% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.5% / 81.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
FC Groningen
9th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Twente 2:2
- 28.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:5
- 16.08.2026 away Den Haag 4:1
PEC Zwolle
16th place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Feyenoord 0:7
- 04.09.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Nijmegen 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Heerenveen 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Twente 1:3
This season: FC Groningen at home vs PEC Zwolle away
| Metric | FC Groningen · at home | PEC Zwolle · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.61 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.81 | 1.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| Corners per match | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.03.2026 PEC Zwolle 1:1 FC Groningen
- 23.11.2025 FC Groningen 2:2 PEC Zwolle
- 18.05.2025 PEC Zwolle 2:0 FC Groningen
- 08.12.2024 FC Groningen 0:0 PEC Zwolle
- 20.02.2022 PEC Zwolle 1:1 FC Groningen
- 03.12.2021 FC Groningen 1:1 PEC Zwolle
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Groningen come into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear but measured advantage over PEC Zwolle. The available assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match is not without uncertainty. FC Groningen should look to impose themselves through sustained pressure and make their home advantage count, while PEC Zwolle will aim to remain compact and take opportunities when they arise.
The match is expected to have an open character, with a strong possibility that both FC Groningen and PEC Zwolle will find the net. That combination points to an entertaining contest in which attacking moments may outweigh defensive control. PEC Zwolle’s ability to respond after conceding could be important, particularly if FC Groningen establish early momentum. Overall, the balance favours FC Groningen, but the likely scoring pattern leaves room for PEC Zwolle to stay competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie Matchday 7 Fixture
FC Groningen host PEC Zwolle in matchday seven of the 2026-27 Eredivisie season at Euroborg Stadium.
Winless Run for Groningen
Dick Lukkien's Groningen enter the match winless in four Eredivisie fixtures, having drawn 1-1 against Go Ahead Eagles in their previous outing.
Head-to-Head Record
PEC Zwolle are undefeated in their last eight encounters against FC Groningen in all competitions dating back to May 2021.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.