FC Dallas — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
FC Dallas enter this MLS meeting with a slight edge over Austin FC, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment gives FC Dallas the stronger position at home, but it does not suggest that Austin FC will be limited to a defensive role. Both sides are expected to contribute in attack, making the game more likely to develop as an open exchange than a cautious battle.
The main signal points toward both teams scoring, alongside a generally high-scoring match profile. That combination leaves several plausible pathways, including a balanced draw or a narrow home win. FC Dallas may have enough attacking momentum and home advantage to make the difference, but Austin FC remain capable of creating chances and keeping the outcome uncertain. The most appropriate reading is a close match with goals at both ends and a slight edge for FC Dallas.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
FC Dallas forward Anderson Julio is ruled out with a lower body injury. For Austin FC, defender Guilherme Biro is suspended, while Przemysław Płacheta is sidelined with a lower body injury.
Recent form ahead of the Texas clash
FC Dallas enters the match riding a three-game MLS winning streak, while Austin FC is unbeaten in its last six league matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.