FC Cincinnati — DC United: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.9% |
| 12 | 80.9% | |
| X2 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.1% / 63.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 21.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Columbus Crew 0:2
- 15.10.2026 home New England Revolution 2:3
- 11.10.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:1
- 27.09.2026 away CF Montreal 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Orlando City 1:4
- 15.10.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Inter Miami 0:4
- 27.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:3
- 20.09.2026 home Charlotte 1:2
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs DC United away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | DC United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–4 | 2–7–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.57 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.07 | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.06.2025 FC Cincinnati 1:2 DC United
- 13.04.2025 DC United 0:1 FC Cincinnati
- 04.07.2024 DC United 2:3 FC Cincinnati
- 10.03.2024 FC Cincinnati 0:0 DC United
- 25.06.2023 DC United 3:0 FC Cincinnati
- 07.05.2023 FC Cincinnati 2:1 DC United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.67 → now 1.55 |
| W2 | was 4.20 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
FC Cincinnati have a moderate but meaningful advantage over DC United ahead of this MLS meeting, particularly given the visitors’ difficulties on the road. FC Cincinnati have won seven of their 14 home matches this season, scoring 36 goals, although their defensive record has been less convincing, with 29 goals conceded. Their recent form is a concern, with just one win in their last five matches and 11 goals conceded during that run. Nevertheless, their attacking output at home suggests they have the potential to put DC United under sustained pressure.
DC United have also recorded only one win in their last five matches, conceding 14 goals during that period. Their away record offers limited reassurance: two wins in 14 matches, alongside seven draws and five defeats, with 25 goals conceded. These figures point to a side that can remain competitive but has struggled to turn away performances into victories. FC Cincinnati therefore appear better placed to control the contest, though their defensive vulnerabilities leave room for the visitors to respond.
Goals at both ends look plausible. Four of the last six meetings produced more than two goals, while the most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for DC United. FC Cincinnati have the stronger overall case at home, but a high-scoring, closely contested match remains a reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled Match
The October 21 match between FC Cincinnati and D.C. United at TQL Stadium is a rescheduled game from September 5, which was postponed due to heavy rain and poor pitch conditions.
Back-to-Back Double-Header
Wednesday's match marks the first of two consecutive games between FC Cincinnati and D.C. United, who will play each other again three days later on Saturday, October 24 at Audi Field.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.