Orlando City SC — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

Orlando City SC host New York City FC in an MLS encounter that looks competitive overall, although the home side has reasons to feel more confident. Orlando City SC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding the same number. Their home record is more encouraging: nine wins from 15 matches, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. That attacking output suggests they have the capacity to create chances, but their defensive record leaves room for New York City FC to threaten.

New York City FC arrive in less convincing form, with two draws and three defeats across their last five matches, scoring four goals and conceding eight. Their away record has been mixed, with four wins, five draws and six losses in 15 games. However, the recent head-to-head history offers a significant counterpoint: New York City FC have won five of the last six meetings, including a 5-0 victory in 2026. That record gives the visitors a reason to approach the fixture with belief despite their recent struggles.

The overall balance remains fairly even, with Orlando City SC holding the more persuasive current home profile and New York City FC carrying a strong historical advantage. Both teams have plausible routes to scoring, making an open contest a reasonable expectation.