Atlanta United FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.7% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Inter Miami 1:3
- 15.10.2026 away CF Montreal 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:3
- 27.09.2026 home New York City 2:2
- 20.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away New England Revolution 0:1
- 15.10.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 10.10.2026 home New York City 2:1
- 07.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
- 27.09.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–9 | 5–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.93 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Chicago Fire 1:0 Atlanta United FC
- 17.07.2025 Atlanta United FC 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 10.05.2025 Chicago Fire 2:1 Atlanta United FC
- 28.04.2024 Chicago Fire 0:0 Atlanta United FC
- 31.03.2024 Atlanta United FC 3:0 Chicago Fire
- 21.05.2023 Chicago Fire 3:3 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.30 → now 2.38 |
Match preview
Atlanta United FC face a closely contested MLS meeting with Chicago Fire, with recent form suggesting little to separate the sides. Atlanta United FC have recorded two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. That balanced record points to a team capable of creating chances but also vulnerable defensively. Their home form is a greater concern, with four wins and nine defeats in fifteen matches this season, alongside 21 goals scored and 29 conceded.
Chicago Fire arrive with three wins and two losses from their last five games, having scored seven goals and conceded six. Their away record offers a more stable foundation, with five wins, five draws and five losses across fifteen matches. Although their recent results have been mixed, their ability to remain competitive on the road makes them a credible threat against a home side that has struggled to establish consistency.
The head-to-head record also suggests a competitive encounter. Across six meetings, Chicago Fire have won twice, Atlanta United FC once, and three matches have ended level. Chicago Fire won the most recent meeting 1-0 in 2026. Overall, the teams look evenly matched, with a slight concern around Atlanta United FC's defensive record at home. Both sides have a reasonable route to scoring, making an open contest a plausible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United Availability Report
Midfielder Will Reilly is out for Atlanta United due to an ankle injury. He is the only player listed on the club's availability report ahead of the match against Chicago Fire.
Recent Results and Playoff Context
Chicago Fire have already clinched an MLS playoff spot despite coming off a 1-0 defeat to New England Revolution. Atlanta United enter the match following a 3-1 home loss against Inter Miami.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.