FC Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

FC Dallas have a slight edge heading into their MLS meeting with San Jose Earthquakes, with home advantage and a competitive recent record supporting their position. FC Dallas have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five matches, scoring six goals and conceding five. Their home record is particularly encouraging: seven wins from 14 matches this season, alongside five draws and just two defeats. They have scored 26 goals at home, suggesting they can create enough opportunities to trouble the visitors, although their defensive record leaves room for San Jose Earthquakes to respond.

San Jose Earthquakes arrive with a solid away record of their own, having won seven of 15 away matches, with five draws and three losses. Their recent form has been difficult to separate from a sequence of draws, with four stalemates and one win in their last five games. They have scored eight goals across that run, indicating a capacity to contribute offensively even when victories prove elusive. The previous meeting also favours FC Dallas, who won 3-2 away from home in 2026.

The overall balance points towards a closely contested match with a slight edge for FC Dallas. Both teams have demonstrated attacking productivity, while their recent defensive records suggest opportunities at both ends. A high-scoring encounter is a reasonable expectation, with FC Dallas marginally better placed to secure the result.