Philadelphia Union — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

Philadelphia Union enter this MLS fixture against New England Revolution with a clear edge, supported by stronger recent form and a productive record in front of goal. The hosts have won four of their last five matches, drawing the other, and scored 15 goals during that run. Their home performances have also been solid, with seven wins in 15 matches this season and 27 goals scored. These figures suggest Philadelphia Union have the attacking capacity and consistency to put sustained pressure on their opponents, although conceding 16 goals at home indicates that defensive control is not always assured.

New England Revolution remain capable of making the contest competitive, but their recent results have been less consistent, with three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. Away from home, they have recorded six wins and seven losses in 15 games, scoring 22 goals while conceding 25. That balance points to an open approach that can create opportunities but also leave space for the opposition. The head-to-head record favours Philadelphia Union, who have won five of the six meetings, although New England Revolution took the most recent encounter by a 2-1 scoreline in 2026.

Overall, Philadelphia Union look the stronger side, with a moderate level of confidence in their advantage. Both teams have reasons to find the net, making an entertaining, potentially high-scoring match a reasonable expectation.