CF Montreal — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.3% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 85.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 27.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:0
- 11.10.2026 away Austin FC 4:1
- 27.09.2026 home Toronto FC 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:0
This season: CF Montreal at home vs Nashville SC away
| Metric | CF Montreal · at home | Nashville SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–6 | 6–6–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 0.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Nashville SC 1:0 CF Montreal
- 04.10.2025 CF Montreal 1:1 Nashville SC
- 23.03.2025 Nashville SC 3:0 CF Montreal
- 26.05.2024 CF Montreal 0:0 Nashville SC
- 05.05.2024 Nashville SC 4:1 CF Montreal
- 22.06.2023 CF Montreal 1:0 Nashville SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.75 → now 6.25 |
| W2 | was 1.60 → now 1.53 |
Match preview
CF Montreal face Nashville SC in MLS with the visitors holding a slight edge based on their recent form and stronger defensive record. CF Montreal have won just one of their last five matches, drawing one and losing three, while conceding nine goals and scoring five. Their home record also offers limited reassurance, with four wins, five draws and six defeats across 15 matches this season. Although they have scored 19 goals at home, they have conceded 21, suggesting that defensive stability remains a concern.
Nashville SC arrive in considerably better form, having won four of their last five matches and drawn the other. They have scored 14 goals while conceding just two during that run, combining attacking productivity with a disciplined defence. Their away record further strengthens their position, with six wins and six draws from 15 matches, alongside only three defeats and 11 goals conceded. Nashville SC also won the most recent meeting between the sides, beating CF Montreal 1-0 in 2026.
The overall balance favours Nashville SC, though CF Montreal's home scoring record suggests the hosts could still contribute offensively. A competitive match with opportunities at both ends is plausible, particularly if CF Montreal can exploit their home advantage. However, Nashville SC's recent consistency and defensive solidity make them the more convincing side, with a narrow away win or a draw representing reasonable possibilities.
What matters before kick-off
Supporters' Shield opportunity for Nashville
A win or draw against CF Montréal will officially secure Nashville SC their first Supporters' Shield in franchise history.
Head-to-head record
CF Montréal holds an all-time record of 1-7-4 against Nashville SC, including a 1-0 defeat in their previous meeting in July 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.