Columbus Crew — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:0
- 15.10.2026 home Charlotte 3:1
- 11.10.2026 away Orlando City 2:3
- 28.09.2026 home Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 15.10.2026 home Orlando City 3:3
- 10.10.2026 home CF Montreal 2:1
- 27.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away St. Louis City 1:3
This season: Columbus Crew at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | Columbus Crew · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–6 | 3–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.47 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.13 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Toronto FC 2:1 Columbus Crew
- 21.09.2025 Columbus Crew 1:1 Toronto FC
- 17.08.2025 Toronto FC 1:1 Columbus Crew
- 19.09.2024 Toronto FC 0:2 Columbus Crew
- 07.07.2024 Columbus Crew 4:0 Toronto FC
- 27.08.2023 Columbus Crew 2:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Columbus Crew enter this MLS meeting with Toronto FC in stronger recent form, having won four of their last five matches and scored 11 goals while conceding five. Their recent results suggest a side capable of creating chances consistently, although their home record this season has been less dominant, with seven wins and six defeats in 15 matches. That mixed home performance adds some uncertainty, but their overall momentum gives them a clear advantage heading into this contest.
Toronto FC have had a more uneven run, recording two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. Their away form is a particular concern, with eight losses in 14 games and 23 goals conceded. That defensive record could leave them vulnerable against an attacking Columbus Crew side. However, Toronto FC did win the most recent meeting, beating Columbus Crew 2-1 in 2026, which offers a reminder that the visitors can compete in this matchup.
The overall balance favours Columbus Crew, with their recent consistency contrasting with Toronto FC's difficulties on the road. A relatively open contest is plausible, as Columbus Crew have shown scoring potential while Toronto FC's defensive vulnerabilities may create opportunities at both ends. The hosts have a moderate but clear edge, though their inconsistent home results suggest the visitors should not be discounted entirely.
What matters before kick-off
Columbus Crew win previous MLS match
In their previous MLS fixture, Columbus Crew secured a 2-0 away victory against FC Cincinnati with goals from Gonzalo Tapia and Taha Habroune.
Toronto FC win previous outing
Toronto FC enter the game following a 2-0 victory on the road against the New York Red Bulls in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.