FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
49.9%
Home win
FC Cincinnati
X
23.2%
Draw
W2
26.9%
Away win
Columbus Crew
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.8%
Both teams to score
Yes70.8%
Totals 2.5
Over71.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Cincinnati × Columbus Crew
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.7%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
3.0%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.1%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
6.4%
1:3
3.3%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.7%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
3.6%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
4.1%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.2%
4:1
3.4%
4:2
2.6%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.5%
2:18.9%
2:26.9%
1:26.4%
3:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away CF Montreal 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 10.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away Nashville SC 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.09.2026 home Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 13.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 0:1
- 10.09.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs Columbus Crew away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | Columbus Crew · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 2–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.83 | 1.54 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 85% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 85% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Cincinnati wins2
Draws1
Columbus Crew wins3
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 26.07.2026 Columbus Crew 2:1 FC Cincinnati
- 08.11.2025 FC Cincinnati 2:1 Columbus Crew
- 02.11.2025 Columbus Crew 4:0 FC Cincinnati
- 27.10.2025 FC Cincinnati 1:0 Columbus Crew
- 13.07.2025 FC Cincinnati 2:4 Columbus Crew
- 18.05.2025 Columbus Crew 1:1 FC Cincinnati
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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