FC Ararat-Armenia — Sparta Prague: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.9% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 80.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Ararat-Armenia face Sparta Prague in a UEFA Europa League match where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a competitive and uncertain contest. The available assessment does not suggest a wide gap between the teams, so FC Ararat-Armenia should remain capable of making the match uncomfortable, particularly if they can manage the tempo and limit Sparta Prague’s opportunities in transition.
The game is expected to sit around a medium-scoring level, with the market signal pointing towards Over. That suggests the match could open up as it develops, but both teams scoring remains a coin flip rather than a clear expectation. Sparta Prague appear marginally better placed, yet the range of plausible outcomes includes a close draw as well as an away win, making the visitors’ advantage narrow rather than decisive.
What matters before kick-off
Ararat-Armenia's historic European debut
FC Ararat-Armenia reached the group/league stage of a major UEFA competition for the first time in club history by defeating Universitatea Craiova in the Europa League play-offs.
Previous head-to-head encounters
The two teams previously met in the third qualifying round of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League, with Sparta Prague winning both legs.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.