FC Ararat-Armenia — NK Celje: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.6% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 69.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Ararat-Armenia and NK Celje meet in the UEFA Champions League Qualification with the overall assessment pointing to an evenly matched contest. The moderate confidence level suggests that neither side has a decisive advantage, so the match may be shaped by small differences in execution rather than a clear gap in quality.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered a genuine possibility rather than a strong tendency. The listed scorelines reflect that balance: 1:1 is the central outcome, while 0:1 and 1:2 indicate a slight lean toward NK Celje if the visitors are able to make the key moments count. FC Ararat-Armenia should remain competitive, but the available signal favours NK Celje avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Debuts in third UCL qualifying round
Both FC Ararat-Armenia and NK Celje are making their first-ever appearance in the third qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League.
Ararat-Armenia domestic result
Ahead of the European clash, Ararat-Armenia opened their domestic league season with a 4-3 victory away against Gandzasar.
Head-to-head history
The only previous meeting between the two sides came in 2020/21 Europa League qualifying, where Ararat-Armenia secured a 1-0 win after extra time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.