FC Alverca SAD — Rio Ave FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.5% / 69.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.05 → now 1.80 |
| X | was 3.40 → now 3.60 |
| W2 | was 3.50 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
FC Alverca SAD face Rio Ave FC in Liga Portugal with the home side holding a slight edge. The assessment gives this view high confidence, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive. Home advantage points toward FC Alverca SAD avoiding defeat, while Rio Ave FC remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring rather than an open goal-fest or a heavily defensive affair. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so there is no clear indication that one side will keep a clean sheet. The most plausible scorelines point to a close game, with a draw or a narrow FC Alverca SAD victory fitting the overall outlook. Rio Ave FC should therefore remain within reach throughout, but the hosts appear better placed to control the result.
What matters before kick-off
FC Alverca SAD secured first league victory
On 12 September 2026, FC Alverca SAD achieved their first win of the 2026/27 Liga Portugal season, defeating CD Nacional 3-1 away from home.
Rio Ave FC drew six-goal thriller
On 14 September 2026, Rio Ave FC played out a 3-3 home draw against Estrela da Amadora in matchday 6 of Liga Portugal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.