Everton — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.2% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 74.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Everton
10th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Tottenham 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Sunderland 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:2
Manchester United
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Brighton 3:0
- 17.05.2026 home Nott'm Forest 3:2
- 09.05.2026 away Sunderland 0:0
This season: Everton at home vs Manchester United away
| Metric | Everton · at home | Manchester United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.12 | 1.83 |
| xG against per match | 1.96 | 1.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.02.2026 Everton 0:1 Manchester United
- 24.11.2025 Manchester United 0:1 Everton
- 22.02.2025 Everton 2:2 Manchester United
- 01.12.2024 Manchester United 4:0 Everton
- 09.03.2024 Manchester United 2:0 Everton
- 26.11.2023 Everton 0:3 Manchester United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Everton face Manchester United in an EPL contest that points towards an open and competitive game. The assessment gives Manchester United a slight edge, with high confidence, although the gap between the sides is not presented as decisive. The X2 signal supports a view that Manchester United should avoid defeat, while Everton remain capable of making the match difficult on home ground.
The scoring outlook is notably positive, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a game shaped by attacking intent and chances at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event contest. The most plausible scenarios include a balanced draw or a narrow Manchester United victory, with scorelines such as 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2 reflecting the expectation of goals and a relatively close contest.
What matters before kick-off
Premier League Matchday 3
Everton host Manchester United in Matchweek 3 of the English Premier League season.
Everton starting lineup update
Everton manager David Moyes made one change to his lineup, with Brennan Johnson coming in for Iliman Ndiaye.
Manchester United squad availability
Manchester United manager Michael Carrick named an unchanged starting XI from their previous win, with Mason Mount fit enough for the bench.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.