Arsenal — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.6% / 68.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Arsenal
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Burnley 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away West Ham 1:0
Chelsea
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 24.05.2026 away Sunderland 1:2
- 19.05.2026 home Tottenham 2:1
- 09.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
This season: Arsenal at home vs Chelsea away
| Metric | Arsenal · at home | Chelsea · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.88 | 1.70 |
| xG against per match | 0.20 | 1.35 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea
- 30.11.2025 Chelsea 1:1 Arsenal
- 16.03.2025 Arsenal 1:0 Chelsea
- 10.11.2024 Chelsea 1:1 Arsenal
- 23.04.2024 Arsenal 5:0 Chelsea
- 21.10.2023 Chelsea 2:2 Arsenal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Arsenal host Chelsea in the EPL on 6 September 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 15:30 UTC. The assessment gives Arsenal a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a closely contestable match rather than a clear advantage. Chelsea remain well placed to make the game competitive, particularly if they can keep the tempo controlled and avoid allowing Arsenal to build sustained pressure.
A medium-scoring pattern is expected, with both teams scoring viewed as an even possibility. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:0, which reflects a narrow range of outcomes rather than a strong directional signal. Arsenal may have the better platform at home, but the limited confidence means the draw remains a credible scenario, especially if Chelsea maintain their defensive structure. Overall, the match leans toward the hosts without providing a decisive basis for expecting a particular result.
What matters before kick-off
Basque managers clash
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta and Chelsea head coach Xabi Alonso face each other in the Premier League for the first time as managers.
Unbeaten starts
Both Arsenal and Chelsea entered the London derby having taken six points from their opening two Premier League matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.