Estudiantes de La Plata — Defensa y Justicia: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.2% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Independiente 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Racing Club 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Platense 2:0
- 25.04.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 0:0
- 18.04.2026 away Instituto 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.07.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:1
- 24.07.2026 home Aldosivi 1:1
- 04.05.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 1:2
- 24.04.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:4
- 18.04.2026 away Independiente 1:3
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs Defensa y Justicia away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | Defensa y Justicia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–3 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.22 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.02.2026 Defensa y Justicia 0:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 22.09.2025 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 09.03.2025 Defensa y Justicia 1:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 28.09.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 29.03.2024 Defensa y Justicia 1:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 05.11.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata go into this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight edge over Defensa y Justicia, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a decisive advantage. The available assessment gives the home side the stronger position, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to expect a straightforward contest.
The scoring outlook is moderate, with the market signal pointing towards a lower total than an open, high-tempo encounter. A clean sheet is considered likely, which suggests that one team may struggle to turn possession or attacking phases into clear chances. Estudiantes de La Plata could therefore have the better platform, particularly if they remain disciplined without the ball, while Defensa y Justicia will need to make their limited opportunities count. The overall picture is of a controlled match in which defensive organisation may carry more weight than attacking volume.
What matters before kick-off
Estudiantes well-rested after postponed match
Estudiantes de La Plata enter the match well-rested after their second-round fixture against Boca Juniors was postponed.
Defensa y Justicia undefeated start in Clausura
Defensa y Justicia opened their Clausura 2026 campaign undefeated, drawing 1-1 with Aldosivi before securing a 2-1 victory over Deportivo Riestra.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.