Estudiantes de La Plata — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% |
| 12 | 68.3% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.6% / 98.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.05.2026 home Racing Club 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Platense 2:0
- 25.04.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 0:0
- 18.04.2026 away Instituto 1:0
- 11.04.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:1
- 24.04.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
- 18.04.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:1
- 11.04.2026 away Boca Juniors 1:1
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–2 | 2–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.01.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 12.08.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 0:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 09.04.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 21.06.2022 CA Independiente Avellaneda 2:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 13.02.2022 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 26.07.2021 Estudiantes de La Plata 0:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata host CA Independiente Avellaneda in the Primera LPF Clausura, with the match scheduled for 26 July 2026. The assessment gives Estudiantes a slight but clear edge, while the overall outlook points toward a controlled and closely contested game rather than an open exchange. The home side appears better positioned in the matchup, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw.
The scoring profile is low, making a narrow result or a goalless stalemate plausible. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0, which reflects the limited attacking margin expected between Estudiantes de La Plata and CA Independiente Avellaneda. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect remains finely balanced. Overall, the safest reading is that Estudiantes should avoid defeat, with the home side holding the stronger position in a match likely to be decided by small details.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.