Estudiantes de La Plata — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% |
| 12 | 68.3% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.6% / 98.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata host CA Independiente Avellaneda in the Primera LPF Clausura, with the match scheduled for 26 July 2026. The assessment gives Estudiantes a slight but clear edge, while the overall outlook points toward a controlled and closely contested game rather than an open exchange. The home side appears better positioned in the matchup, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw.
The scoring profile is low, making a narrow result or a goalless stalemate plausible. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0, which reflects the limited attacking margin expected between Estudiantes de La Plata and CA Independiente Avellaneda. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect remains finely balanced. Overall, the safest reading is that Estudiantes should avoid defeat, with the home side holding the stronger position in a match likely to be decided by small details.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.