CA Lanus — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.1% |
| 12 | 67.9% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.0% / 99.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.05.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 24.04.2026 home Central Cordoba 0:0
- 21.04.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:1
- 13.04.2026 home Banfield 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.05.2026 away River Plate 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Independiente 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away Platense 1:0
- 20.04.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 0:0
- 12.04.2026 away Newells Old Boys 0:0
This season: CA Lanus at home vs CA San Lorenzo de Almagro away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–1 | 2–6–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.13 | 0.56 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.01.2026 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 2:3 CA Lanus
- 05.10.2025 CA Lanus 2:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 28.03.2025 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:1 CA Lanus
- 20.05.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:1 CA Lanus
- 27.01.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:2 CA Lanus
- 20.08.2023 CA Lanus 0:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Lanus enter this Primera LPF Clausura fixture with a slight but credible edge over CA San Lorenzo de Almagro. The overall assessment points toward a cautious match, with Lanus better placed to control the key phases without suggesting a wide gap between the sides. San Lorenzo remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, particularly if they maintain a compact defensive shape and limit the hosts’ opportunities.
The expected pattern is low-scoring, and a clean sheet appears more likely than an open exchange of chances. The most plausible scorelines are 1-0, 0-0, and 1-1, which reflects a match likely to be decided by a small detail rather than sustained attacking dominance. Lanus therefore have the stronger position in the analysis, while the draw remains a significant possibility if San Lorenzo can frustrate the home side.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.