CA Lanus — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.1% |
| 12 | 67.9% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.0% / 99.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Lanus enter this Primera LPF Clausura fixture with a slight but credible edge over CA San Lorenzo de Almagro. The overall assessment points toward a cautious match, with Lanus better placed to control the key phases without suggesting a wide gap between the sides. San Lorenzo remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, particularly if they maintain a compact defensive shape and limit the hosts’ opportunities.
The expected pattern is low-scoring, and a clean sheet appears more likely than an open exchange of chances. The most plausible scorelines are 1-0, 0-0, and 1-1, which reflects a match likely to be decided by a small detail rather than sustained attacking dominance. Lanus therefore have the stronger position in the analysis, while the draw remains a significant possibility if San Lorenzo can frustrate the home side.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.