Atletico Tucuman — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.05.2026 away River Plate 1:0
- 27.04.2026 home Banfield 1:1
- 19.04.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 0:1
- 12.04.2026 home Tigre 0:0
- 05.04.2026 away Rosario Central 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.05.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 1:2
- 03.05.2026 away Aldosivi 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 5:1
- 20.04.2026 away Banfield 0:0
- 11.04.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 3:1
This season: Atletico Tucuman at home vs Independiente Rivadavia away
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman · at home | Independiente Rivadavia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–1 | 4–3–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Independiente Rivadavia 2:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 05.08.2024 Atletico Tucuman 2:1 Independiente Rivadavia
- 17.03.2024 Atletico Tucuman 2:2 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Tucuman and Independiente Rivadavia look closely matched ahead of their Primera LPF Clausura meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a balanced contest in which home advantage may provide Atletico Tucuman with a slight positional edge. The overall outlook is moderate rather than decisive, so the match could remain finely poised for long periods.
The scoring picture suggests a game with a moderate level of attacking activity, but there is no strong indication that both teams will find the net. That makes the tactical balance important: Atletico Tucuman may look to use its home setting to control the match, while Independiente Rivadavia should remain competitive in a fixture where small details could shape the outcome. A draw is a credible scenario, and the match appears more likely to be decided by narrow margins than by a wide separation between the sides.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.