Estrela Amadora — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.2% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.15 → now 2.05 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.60 |
Match preview
Estrela Amadora welcome Academico de Viseu FC in Liga Portugal with the hosts holding a slight edge. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which Estrela Amadora may have the stronger overall position, but the gap between the teams is not wide enough to dismiss a draw or an away response. The 1X signal reflects that balance, favouring Estrela Amadora while also recognising the resilience of Academico de Viseu FC.
A medium-scoring contest appears the most likely profile. The projected scorelines include a level outcome as well as narrow home wins, suggesting that small details could determine the result rather than sustained dominance from either side. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect remains finely balanced. Estrela Amadora therefore merit preference, but Academico de Viseu FC remain credible opponents in a fixture that could stay close throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Match relocated to Rio Maior
Estrela Amadora will host Academico de Viseu at the Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior after Liga Portugal rejected the pitch conditions at Estádio José Gomes.
Academico de Viseu target first win over unbeaten Estrela
Academico de Viseu head coach Bruno Pinheiro stated ahead of the fixture that his team wants to become the first side to defeat undefeated Estrela Amadora this season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.