Estoril Praia — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.7% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.80 |
| W2 | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
Estoril Praia have a slight edge over Casa Pia Lisbon in this Liga Portugal meeting, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment gives Estoril Praia the stronger position, but the margin between the teams appears limited, leaving room for a balanced match.
The game is expected to be medium-scoring, with plausible outcomes including a draw and narrow home victories. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its chances. A 1-1 draw, 1-0 home win, or 2-0 home win are the most representative scorelines from the assessment. Overall, Estoril Praia are marginally better placed, but Casa Pia Lisbon remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Casa Pia squad news
Casa Pia head coach Filipe Coelho confirmed ahead of the match that goalkeeper André Gomes remains on the medical report, while winger Jérémy Livolant is also ruled out as he continues his return-to-play protocol.
Estoril Praia recent result
Estoril Praia come into the match following a 1-0 away defeat against Sporting Braga in Liga Portugal round 6 on September 14, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.