EC Vitoria BA — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.5% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA have a slight edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture, with the overall assessment carrying a high level of confidence. The signal points toward protection for the home side, while the scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than strongly open or especially defensive.
The most plausible scorelines indicate a balanced contest, with 1:1 and 1:0 among the leading possibilities, while 0:0 is also considered viable. That range suggests a match in which small details may have a significant influence, and neither team is expected to dominate consistently. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, so the game could develop either as a controlled home performance or as a closely contested draw. The available indicators favour EC Vitoria BA, but the narrow margin keeps Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS firmly in contention.
What matters before kick-off
Key suspensions for both sides
Vitória defender Cacá is suspended for the Matchday 26 fixture. Grêmio will also be without left-back Marlon due to suspension.
Recent league results
Vitória enter the match following back-to-back defeats in Série A, whereas Grêmio secured a 3-1 home victory over Chapecoense in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.