EC Vitoria BA — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.5% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.09.2026
EC Vitoria BA
14th place · 29 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Bahia 0:2
- 16.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:0
- 09.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.07.2026 home Palmeiras 0:4
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
15th place · 28 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Bragantino 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:3
- 08.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 8–1–3 | 0–4–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.03.2026 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 28.09.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 3:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 27.04.2025 EC Vitoria BA 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 04.12.2024 EC Vitoria BA 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 21.07.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 25.11.2018 EC Vitoria BA 0:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA have a slight edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture, with the overall assessment carrying a high level of confidence. The signal points toward protection for the home side, while the scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than strongly open or especially defensive.
The most plausible scorelines indicate a balanced contest, with 1:1 and 1:0 among the leading possibilities, while 0:0 is also considered viable. That range suggests a match in which small details may have a significant influence, and neither team is expected to dominate consistently. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, so the game could develop either as a controlled home performance or as a closely contested draw. The available indicators favour EC Vitoria BA, but the narrow margin keeps Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS firmly in contention.
What matters before kick-off
Key suspensions for both sides
Vitória defender Cacá is suspended for the Matchday 26 fixture. Grêmio will also be without left-back Marlon due to suspension.
Recent league results
Vitória enter the match following back-to-back defeats in Série A, whereas Grêmio secured a 3-1 home victory over Chapecoense in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.