EC Bahia BA — Clube do Remo PA: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.8% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
EC Bahia BA have a clear edge over Clube do Remo PA in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture, although the assessment carries only moderate confidence. The home side is the stronger team on the available indications, and the market signal also points toward a home win. That makes EC Bahia BA the more attractive side in the result assessment, without removing the possibility of a tighter contest.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open goal-fest. The most representative scorelines are 2:0 and 1:0, which reflect the hosts’ advantage while keeping the margin controlled. A 1:1 draw also remains part of the plausible range, particularly because the likelihood of both teams scoring is described as evenly balanced. Overall, Clube do Remo PA have a route into the game, but the main analytical lean is toward EC Bahia BA securing the stronger result.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.