Botafogo FR RJ — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.6% / 63.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ have a slight edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive matchup. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but the difference between the teams is limited, leaving the draw as a realistic possibility.
The game is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range, with the market signal leaning toward Over. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, described as a coin flip, so there is no clear indication that either defence will control the match throughout. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting both the home advantage and the uncertainty around the final outcome. Botafogo FR RJ may be marginally better placed, but Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS remain capable of keeping the match competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Postponed Round 21 fixture
The match between Botafogo and Gremio at the Nilton Santos Stadium is a postponed fixture from Round 21 of the 2026 Brasileirao Serie A.
Squad availability updates
Botafogo welcome back striker Arthur Cabral from suspension, but lose Ferraresi and Kadir to suspensions. Gremio have Pavon back from suspension, while Pedro Gabriel is ruled out due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.