Defensa y Justicia — Instituto AC Cordoba: Win probabilities, 16.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
34.2%
Home win
Defensa y Justicia
X
31.6%
Draw
W2
34.2%
Away win
Instituto AC Cordoba
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1268.4%
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
Totals 2.5
Under56.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.8% |
| 12 | 68.4% | |
| X2 | 65.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Goal distribution model
Defensa y Justicia × Instituto AC Cordoba
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.9%
0:1
8.5%
0:2
6.5%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.5%
1:1
15.1%
1:2
7.9%
1:3
3.2%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
7.9%
2:2
4.8%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
2.6%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:115.1%
0:010.9%
0:18.5%
1:08.5%
2:17.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home San Lorenzo 3:0
- 18.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 2:2
- 11.09.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Lanus 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Platense 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 away Independiente 4:1
- 20.09.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 15.09.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 08.09.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 2:3
- 01.09.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:0
This season: Defensa y Justicia at home vs Instituto AC Cordoba away
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia · at home | Instituto AC Cordoba · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 6–6–2 | 5–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 36% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
Defensa y Justicia wins1
Draws0
Instituto AC Cordoba wins2
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored1/3
Over 2.5 goals1/3
- 07.04.2026 Instituto AC Cordoba 2:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 24.08.2024 Instituto AC Cordoba 4:1 Defensa y Justicia
- 15.04.2023 Defensa y Justicia 1:0 Instituto AC Cordoba
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.90 → now 2.70 |
| W2 | was 2.50 → now 2.70 |
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