DC United — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.7% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 67.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
DC United and Charlotte FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points towards a moderate-confidence contest rather than a clear advantage for either side, with the balance of the game potentially shaped by how effectively each team manages transitions and defensive spaces. Neither team is identified as decisively stronger, so the match may remain competitive throughout.
The scoring outlook is more open, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a match in which neither defence can be expected to control the game completely, creating room for changes in momentum and opportunities at both ends. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflecting the narrow separation between the teams. Charlotte FC may have a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the overall picture remains one of a close fixture rather than a predictable result.
What matters before kick-off
D.C. United's recent result
D.C. United came into the match following a 0-0 home draw against Atlanta United on September 12, 2026, where goalkeeper Sean Johnson made two saves to secure a clean sheet.
Team availability updates
According to the official MLS Player Status Report, D.C. United forward Gabe Segal is out with a lower leg injury, while Charlotte FC are without Nimfasha Berchimas and Aron John.
Charlotte FC's recent form and head-to-head streak
Charlotte FC entered the fixture on a seven-game unbeaten streak in MLS action and had won each of their previous five meetings against D.C. United across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.