CR Flamengo RJ — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.0% |
| 12 | 89.3% | |
| X2 | 15.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ come into this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. The available assessment points to a match in which the hosts should control the main phases of play, apply sustained pressure, and create the more dangerous opportunities. Mirassol FC SP will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly when defending their own penalty area, if they are to limit Flamengo’s attacking influence.
The scoring outlook is high, although it is also considered likely that only one team will find the net. That combination suggests a game where CR Flamengo RJ can impose their quality without necessarily allowing Mirassol FC SP many clear openings. The most plausible scorelines indicate a home victory with a clean sheet, ranging from a narrow success to a more comfortable result. Mirassol FC SP may have opportunities if they can exploit transitions, but the overall balance gives the hosts a clear advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Postponed Round 4 match
The match between Flamengo and Mirassol at the Maracanã is a rescheduled fixture from the 4th round of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
League standings and recent results
Flamengo entered the match in second place in Serie A with 48 points following a 3-0 win against Botafogo, while Mirassol held 16th place with 25 points after a 1-1 draw with Palmeiras.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.