CR Flamengo RJ — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.0% |
| 12 | 89.3% | |
| X2 | 15.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.9% / 61.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.09.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
2nd place · 48 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 3:0
- 23.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Mirassol 5:1
- 09.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:0
- 29.07.2026 away Internacional 1:1
Mirassol FC SP
17th place · 25 pts after 24Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Palmeiras 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Santos 1:1
- 16.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:5
- 09.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Mirassol FC SP away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | Mirassol FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–1 | 1–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.73 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 16.08.2026 Mirassol FC SP 1:5 CR Flamengo RJ
- 06.12.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:3 CR Flamengo RJ
- 09.08.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ come into this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. The available assessment points to a match in which the hosts should control the main phases of play, apply sustained pressure, and create the more dangerous opportunities. Mirassol FC SP will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly when defending their own penalty area, if they are to limit Flamengo’s attacking influence.
The scoring outlook is high, although it is also considered likely that only one team will find the net. That combination suggests a game where CR Flamengo RJ can impose their quality without necessarily allowing Mirassol FC SP many clear openings. The most plausible scorelines indicate a home victory with a clean sheet, ranging from a narrow success to a more comfortable result. Mirassol FC SP may have opportunities if they can exploit transitions, but the overall balance gives the hosts a clear advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Postponed Round 4 match
The match between Flamengo and Mirassol at the Maracanã is a rescheduled fixture from the 4th round of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
League standings and recent results
Flamengo entered the match in second place in Serie A with 48 points following a 3-0 win against Botafogo, while Mirassol held 16th place with 25 points after a 1-1 draw with Palmeiras.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
