Match intelligence

CR Flamengo RJ — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026

League: Brasileiro Serie A (Brazil) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
CR Flamengo RJ2
:
0Mirassol FC SP
Locked signal W1 Probability 84.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 84.3% Home win CR Flamengo RJ
X 10.7% Draw
W2 5.0% Away win Mirassol FC SP
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X95.0%
Both teams to score
No61.1%
Totals 2.5
Over65.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X95.0%
1289.3%
X215.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No38.9% / 61.1%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.7% / 3.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 84.5% / 15.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 65.0% / 35.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 43.0% / 57.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 24.6% / 75.4%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 12.3% / 87.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

CR Flamengo RJ × Mirassol FC SP
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.3%
0:1 2.2%
0:2 0.5%
0:3 0.1%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 10.1%
1:1 5.1%
1:2 1.4%
1:3 0.3%
1:4 0.0%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 13.9%
2:1 7.5%
2:2 2.0%
2:3 0.4%
2:4 0.0%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 13.0%
3:1 7.0%
3:2 1.9%
3:3 0.3%
3:4 0.0%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 9.1%
4:1 4.9%
4:2 1.3%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.0%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 5.1%
5:1 2.8%
5:2 0.7%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.9%
3:013.0%
1:010.1%
4:09.1%
2:17.5%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 02.09.2026

CR Flamengo RJ

2nd place · 48 pts after 24

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 30.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 3:0
  • 23.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:2
  • 16.08.2026 away Mirassol 5:1
  • 09.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:0
  • 29.07.2026 away Internacional 1:1

Mirassol FC SP

17th place · 25 pts after 24

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 30.08.2026 home Palmeiras 1:1
  • 23.08.2026 away Santos 1:1
  • 16.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:5
  • 09.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
  • 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1

This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Mirassol FC SP away

Metric CR Flamengo RJ · at home Mirassol FC SP · away
Matches1111
W–D–L7–3–11–3–7
Goals scored per match2.000.91
Goals conceded per match0.731.64
Over 2.5 goals55%45%
Both teams scored36%64%

Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings

CR Flamengo RJ wins2
Draws1
Mirassol FC SP wins0
Goals per match5.00
Both teams scored3/3
Over 2.5 goals3/3
  • 16.08.2026 Mirassol FC SP 1:5 CR Flamengo RJ
  • 06.12.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:3 CR Flamengo RJ
  • 09.08.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 Mirassol FC SP

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

CR Flamengo RJ come into this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. The available assessment points to a match in which the hosts should control the main phases of play, apply sustained pressure, and create the more dangerous opportunities. Mirassol FC SP will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly when defending their own penalty area, if they are to limit Flamengo’s attacking influence.

The scoring outlook is high, although it is also considered likely that only one team will find the net. That combination suggests a game where CR Flamengo RJ can impose their quality without necessarily allowing Mirassol FC SP many clear openings. The most plausible scorelines indicate a home victory with a clean sheet, ranging from a narrow success to a more comfortable result. Mirassol FC SP may have opportunities if they can exploit transitions, but the overall balance gives the hosts a clear advantage.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Postponed Round 4 match

The match between Flamengo and Mirassol at the Maracanã is a rescheduled fixture from the 4th round of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.

Match fact

League standings and recent results

Flamengo entered the match in second place in Serie A with 48 points following a 3-0 win against Botafogo, while Mirassol held 16th place with 25 points after a 1-1 draw with Palmeiras.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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