Coventry City — Newcastle United: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Full time
× Prediction missed
Final result
Coventry City4
:
1Newcastle United
Locked signal X2
Probability 72.5%
Verdict Miss
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
27.5%
Home win
Coventry City
X
25.8%
Draw
W2
46.6%
Away win
Newcastle United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X274.7%
Both teams to score
Yes69.0%
Totals 2.5
Over67.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 74.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
Goal distribution model
Coventry City × Newcastle United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.2%
0:1
4.0%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
4.3%
0:4
2.2%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
2.2%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
6.2%
1:4
3.2%
1:5
1.3%
2
2:0
3.2%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
4.5%
2:4
2.3%
2:5
0.9%
3
3:0
1.6%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
2.2%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.2%
1:29.2%
2:26.7%
2:16.6%
0:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
Coventry City
18th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 13.09.2026 home Brighton 0:5
- 05.09.2026 away Man City 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Hull 0:1
- 21.08.2026 away Arsenal 0:3
Newcastle United
9th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Bournemouth 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
This season: Coventry City at home vs Newcastle United away
| Metric | Coventry City · at home | Newcastle United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 0.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.77 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.25 → now 3.77 |
| W2 | was 2.21 → now 2.00 |
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