Columbus Crew — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.6% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Columbus Crew have a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available signal favours avoiding a defeat for the hosts, while the range of likely scores points to a closely balanced match rather than a one-sided game.
The scoring outlook is more open, with both teams likely to score. That should make the attacking phases important, particularly if either side takes an early lead and the other is forced to respond. Scores such as 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2 reflect the uncertainty: Columbus Crew hold the narrower advantage, but New England Revolution remain capable of making the match competitive and influencing the result.
What matters before kick-off
Match rescheduled to August 30
The regular season fixture was moved from August 29 to August 30, 2026, to allow Columbus Crew additional travel time following their Leagues Cup quarterfinal against Club América in California.
Daniel Gazdag contract terminated
Columbus Crew mutually agreed to terminate midfielder Daniel Gazdag's contract, freeing up a Designated Player spot on the team's roster.
Recent head-to-head record
New England Revolution have won their last two matches against Columbus Crew, including a 2-1 away victory in Ohio last season and a comeback win at home earlier in 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.