Colorado Rapids — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.2% |
| 12 | 77.8% | |
| X2 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
Colorado Rapids host Seattle Sounders in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives Colorado Rapids a slight home edge, with a high level of confidence in that direction. This is not a strong separation between the teams, but the hosts are considered more likely to avoid defeat, making the 1X outlook the most consistent signal.
The expected match profile is high-scoring, with both Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders likely to find the net. That suggests Seattle Sounders should remain involved even if Colorado Rapids have the stronger overall position. The most plausible scorelines reflect a narrow game rather than a one-sided result: 1:1, 2:1, or 1:0. Overall, Colorado Rapids have the advantage of expectation, while Seattle Sounders retain a credible path to a draw or a close result through their attacking contribution.
What matters before kick-off
Colorado Rapids Recent Home Results
Colorado Rapids defeated CF Montréal 1-0 on September 12, 2026, setting a club record with six consecutive home clean sheets in MLS. However, they fell 3-0 to St. Louis CITY SC in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals on September 16, 2026.
Chris Aquino Short-Term Call-Up
Colorado Rapids signed 20-year-old Rapids 2 midfielder Chris Aquino to a short-term agreement, making him available for selection against Seattle Sounders in MLS.
Seattle Sounders Away Wins Record
Seattle Sounders enter the match with 99 all-time road wins in MLS play as they look to reach 100 road victories against Colorado Rapids.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.