Chicago Fire — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 07.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.7% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 65.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.1% / 27.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.5% / 68.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home Inter Miami 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Toronto FC 4:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home DC United 3:3
- 20.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 3:0
- 13.09.2026 home Austin FC 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 3:0
- 06.09.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | Vancouver Whitecaps FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–4 | 6–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.83 | 2.18 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.03.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1:3 Chicago Fire
- 31.08.2023 Chicago Fire 0:1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 24.07.2022 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1:3 Chicago Fire
- 23.07.2020 Chicago Fire 0:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 13.04.2019 Chicago Fire 1:1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 08.07.2018 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:2 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chicago Fire face Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS meeting that projects as a competitive game with a slight edge for the visitors. The available assessment points toward Vancouver Whitecaps FC as the marginally stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference is not decisive. Chicago Fire should still have a meaningful role in the contest, particularly given the expectation of an open match.
The scoring outlook is notably positive, with both teams likely to find the net. The likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1, reflecting a game where neither side is expected to have complete control. Overall, the BTTS signal points toward chances at both ends, while the high-scoring assessment suggests that the match could develop into an attacking encounter. Vancouver Whitecaps FC hold the slight analytical advantage, but the range of plausible outcomes indicates a relatively balanced contest.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled MLS fixture
This MLS match is a make-up fixture originally scheduled for July 16, which was postponed due to poor air quality in Chicago.
Chicago Fire's recent form
Before the international break, Chicago Fire earned a 1-0 away victory against Charlotte FC thanks to Johan Gómez's first MLS goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.