Charlotte FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 26.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.6% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.10 → now 2.90 |
Match preview
Charlotte FC have a slight edge over Chicago Fire in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates that the balance is not heavily tilted. The available assessment points toward an open contest rather than a cautious, low-event game, with attacking moments expected at both ends of the pitch.
Both teams are likely to score, making the BTTS market the clearest signal in the preview. The suggested scorelines include a level result as well as narrow wins for either side, which underlines the uncertainty around the final outcome. Charlotte FC may have the stronger position overall, but Chicago Fire remain well placed to create danger and stay competitive. The most consistent expectation is therefore a high-scoring match in which neither defence is expected to keep a clean sheet.
What matters before kick-off
International Duty Absences
Both Charlotte FC and Chicago Fire FC are missing multiple key players due to international call-ups. Chicago are without seven players, including striker Robert Lewandowski and starting goalkeeper Chris Brady, while Charlotte are missing four players, including Liel Abada and Idan Toklomati.
Charlotte FC's Unbeaten Streak
Charlotte FC enter the fixture riding an eight-match unbeaten run in Major League Soccer regular season play. In their previous match, they secured a 2-1 victory over D.C. United thanks to a game-winning goal from Allan Saint-Maximin.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.