CF Montreal — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 26.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.1% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 26 September. The available assessment gives only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, with neither side holding a clearly defined advantage. That balance makes the match difficult to separate on the result market, while the range of projected scorelines includes a draw as well as narrow wins for either team.
The stronger signal points toward an open contest with goals at both ends. Both teams are likely to score, and the high-scoring assessment suggests that the match could develop into an exchange of attacking moments rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scenario, while 1:2 and 2:1 also reflect how limited the difference between CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati may be. The key question is which side can turn its attacking opportunities into the decisive contribution.
What matters before kick-off
Head-to-head record
FC Cincinnati have won four consecutive MLS matches against CF Montréal, outscoring them 14-5 across those victories.
Previous meeting this season
In their first meeting of the 2026 season on March 22, FC Cincinnati defeated CF Montréal 4-3 after coming back from behind with 10 men following a red card.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.