CF Montreal — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.2% / 58.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.1% / 76.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.70 |
| W2 | was 2.70 → now 2.45 |
Match preview
CF Montreal and Columbus Crew appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 19 September. The available indicators point to a balanced contest rather than a clear advantage for either side, with moderate confidence in that assessment. Neither team stands out as the stronger candidate on the information provided, so the match may be shaped by small tactical details and how effectively each side manages the different phases of play.
The main expectation is for an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to find the net. That points toward a match with attacking intent and enough chances at both ends, although the balanced outlook makes it difficult to separate CF Montreal and Columbus Crew confidently. Scorelines such as 1:1, 1:2, or 2:1 reflect the narrow margin between the teams and the possibility that the result could be decided by efficiency in front of goal rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek domestic cup success for both sides
Both clubs reached domestic cup finals in midweek: CF Montréal defeated the Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 in the Canadian Championship semifinals, while Columbus Crew beat Orlando City 2-1 in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals.
Form of Montreal forward Prince Owusu
CF Montréal forward Prince Owusu scored a brace in the Canadian Championship semifinal win over Vancouver and leads the team with 13 goals in MLS play this season.
Previous head-to-head meeting result
The last meeting between CF Montréal and Columbus Crew took place on August 19, 2026, with Montréal securing a 2-1 away victory.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.