Cardiff City — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.1% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cardiff City host Wrexham AFC in a Championship fixture on 17 August 2026. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with only a moderate level of confidence in the overall outlook. Neither side has a clear underlying advantage in the information provided, so the match may be shaped by small differences in execution rather than a sustained territorial or quality gap.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a 1:1 draw a plausible central scenario, although 2:1 and 1:2 also reflect the narrow balance between Cardiff City and Wrexham AFC. The 1X signal gives Cardiff City a slight situational edge, particularly through the possibility of avoiding defeat at home, but it does not separate the teams decisively. Overall, this looks like a competitive fixture in which the result could remain uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Cardiff City defensive injury concerns
Cardiff City enter the match facing defensive injury issues. Defender Will Fish underwent hernia surgery and is sidelined, while Calum Chambers and Dylan Lawlor are also ruled out.
Wrexham missing key forward
Wrexham are without last season's top scorer Josh Windass. The forward misses the Championship opener due to an injury.
First league meeting in 24 years
The match between Cardiff City and Wrexham marks the first league meeting between the two Welsh clubs since 2002.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.