Cardiff City — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cardiff City and Wrexham AFC meet in the Championship in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched contest. That points towards a game where momentum may shift between the teams rather than one controlled throughout by either Cardiff City or Wrexham AFC.
The scoring outlook is medium, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. A 1-1 draw stands out as one plausible outcome, although a narrow win for either side also fits the overall picture. Cardiff City may have the benefit of playing at home, but Wrexham AFC remain capable of making the match competitive. The central expectation is therefore a measured, open contest in which both defences face sustained pressure and small details could decide whether the points are shared or claimed by one team.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.