Cardiff City — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.1% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 away Mansfield 4:5
- 25.04.2026 home Northampton 5:1
- 22.04.2026 home Port Vale 1:0
- 18.04.2026 away Reading 3:1
- 14.04.2026 away Huddersfield 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.05.2026 home Middlesbrough 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away Coventry 1:3
- 21.04.2026 away Oxford 1:0
- 18.04.2026 home Stoke 2:0
- 12.04.2026 away Birmingham 0:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cardiff City host Wrexham AFC in a Championship fixture on 17 August 2026. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with only a moderate level of confidence in the overall outlook. Neither side has a clear underlying advantage in the information provided, so the match may be shaped by small differences in execution rather than a sustained territorial or quality gap.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a 1:1 draw a plausible central scenario, although 2:1 and 1:2 also reflect the narrow balance between Cardiff City and Wrexham AFC. The 1X signal gives Cardiff City a slight situational edge, particularly through the possibility of avoiding defeat at home, but it does not separate the teams decisively. Overall, this looks like a competitive fixture in which the result could remain uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Cardiff City defensive injury concerns
Cardiff City enter the match facing defensive injury issues. Defender Will Fish underwent hernia surgery and is sidelined, while Calum Chambers and Dylan Lawlor are also ruled out.
Wrexham missing key forward
Wrexham are without last season's top scorer Josh Windass. The forward misses the Championship opener due to an injury.
First league meeting in 24 years
The match between Cardiff City and Wrexham marks the first league meeting between the two Welsh clubs since 2002.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.