Cagliari Calcio — US Lecce: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.2% |
| 12 | 70.1% | |
| X2 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cagliari Calcio have a slight edge over US Lecce in what looks set to be a closely contested Serie A match. The assessment points toward a low-scoring encounter, with neither side clearly dominant enough to separate themselves from the other. The hosts hold the stronger position, but the margin is narrow.
A draw remains a realistic possibility, and whether both teams score is finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, all consistent with a match decided by small details and limited attacking output. Overall, Cagliari Calcio are favoured to avoid defeat, while US Lecce remain capable of making the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Matchday 3 Fixture
Cagliari host US Lecce at the Unipol Domus stadium in Matchday 3 of the 2026/27 Serie A season.
Recent Results for Both Teams
Heading into this encounter, both Cagliari and US Lecce have 3 points from two league games, with Cagliari losing 1-0 to Inter Milan and Lecce suffering a 4-0 defeat against AS Roma in their last outings.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.