CA Sarmiento Junin — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
15.1%
Home win
CA Sarmiento Junin
X
28.8%
Draw
W2
56.1%
Away win
CA River Plate (ARG)
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X284.9%
Both teams to score
No55.9%
Totals 2.5
Under58.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.9% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 84.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.3% / 78.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Goal distribution model
CA Sarmiento Junin × CA River Plate (ARG)
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
11.5%
0:1
13.2%
0:2
12.3%
0:3
6.6%
0:4
2.7%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
5.0%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
4.9%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
2.6%
2:1
4.2%
2:2
3.4%
2:3
1.8%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
0.7%
3:1
1.1%
3:2
0.8%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.2%
4:2
0.2%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.0%
5:2
0.0%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
0:113.2%
0:212.3%
0:011.5%
1:29.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Racing Club 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Belgrano 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:0
- 28.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:4
- 23.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Huracan 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Banfield 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 2:2
This season: CA Sarmiento Junin at home vs CA River Plate (ARG) away
| Metric | CA Sarmiento Junin · at home | CA River Plate (ARG) · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–3 | 6–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CA Sarmiento Junin wins2
Draws1
CA River Plate (ARG) wins3
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 15.03.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:0 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 12.10.2025 CA River Plate (ARG) 0:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 06.04.2025 CA Sarmiento Junin 1:1 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 28.07.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:0 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 20.03.2023 CA Sarmiento Junin 0:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 01.08.2022 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:2 CA Sarmiento Junin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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