CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.7% |
| 12 | 70.9% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 2.05 → now 1.90 |
| X | was 3.00 → now 3.20 |
| X2 | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro have a slight but high-confidence edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza in this Primera LPF Clausura meeting. The overall assessment points towards a cautious contest, with the home side better placed to control the match but without a clear expectation of an open attacking performance.
A low-scoring game is the most likely pattern, and a clean sheet appears more likely than both teams finding the net. The main scoreline possibilities are a narrow 1-0 win for CA San Lorenzo de Almagro, a goalless draw, or a 1-1 result. Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the match close, so the visitors should not be discounted despite the hosts' advantage.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.