CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.7% |
| 12 | 70.9% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Lanus 0:1
- 10.05.2026 away River Plate 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Independiente 1:2
- 25.04.2026 away Platense 1:0
- 20.04.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.07.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:0
- 04.05.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 2:1
- 26.04.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 1:5
- 21.04.2026 home Lanus 1:0
- 12.04.2026 away Platense 1:1
This season: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 1–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.63 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 27.01.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 0:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro have a slight but high-confidence edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza in this Primera LPF Clausura meeting. The overall assessment points towards a cautious contest, with the home side better placed to control the match but without a clear expectation of an open attacking performance.
A low-scoring game is the most likely pattern, and a clean sheet appears more likely than both teams finding the net. The main scoreline possibilities are a narrow 1-0 win for CA San Lorenzo de Almagro, a goalless draw, or a 1-1 result. Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the match close, so the visitors should not be discounted despite the hosts' advantage.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.