Match intelligence

CA Barracas Central — CA Aldosivi: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026

League: Primera LPF, Clausura (Argentina) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
CA Barracas Central1
:
0CA Aldosivi
Locked signal 1X Probability 75.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 40.1% Home win CA Barracas Central
X 35.1% Draw
W2 24.8% Away win CA Aldosivi
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X75.2%
Both teams to score
No66.8%
Totals 2.5
Under75.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X75.2%
1264.9%
X259.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No33.2% / 66.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 81.2% / 18.8%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 51.9% / 48.1%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 24.6% / 75.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 9.5% / 90.5%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 3.1% / 96.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 0.8% / 99.2%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

CA Barracas Central × CA Aldosivi
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 18.8%
0:1 12.1%
0:2 4.7%
0:3 1.1%
0:4 0.2%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 17.1%
1:1 13.7%
1:2 4.6%
1:3 1.1%
1:4 0.2%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 8.9%
2:1 6.4%
2:2 2.3%
2:3 0.6%
2:4 0.1%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 3.0%
3:1 2.1%
3:2 0.8%
3:3 0.2%
3:4 0.0%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 0.7%
4:1 0.5%
4:2 0.2%
4:3 0.0%
4:4 0.0%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.0%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:018.8%
1:017.1%
1:113.7%
0:112.1%
2:08.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.07.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 25.07.2026 away River Plate 1:0
  • 02.05.2026 home Banfield 1:2
  • 25.04.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
  • 20.04.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
  • 12.04.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.07.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:1
  • 03.05.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 1:1
  • 26.04.2026 away River Plate 1:3
  • 19.04.2026 home Racing Club 1:1
  • 11.04.2026 away Belgrano 0:1

This season: CA Barracas Central at home vs CA Aldosivi away

Metric CA Barracas Central · at home CA Aldosivi · away
Matches89
W–D–L3–2–30–2–7
Goals scored per match1.130.44
Goals conceded per match1.001.67
Over 2.5 goals50%22%
Both teams scored63%44%

Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings

CA Barracas Central wins3
Draws1
CA Aldosivi wins1
Goals per match2.60
Both teams scored3/5
Over 2.5 goals3/5
  • 28.01.2026 CA Aldosivi 0:0 CA Barracas Central
  • 10.08.2025 CA Barracas Central 3:1 CA Aldosivi
  • 06.02.2025 CA Aldosivi 1:3 CA Barracas Central
  • 04.10.2022 CA Aldosivi 2:0 CA Barracas Central
  • 05.03.2022 CA Barracas Central 2:1 CA Aldosivi

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

CA Barracas Central have a slight but well-supported edge over CA Aldosivi in this Primera LPF Clausura fixture. The overall expectation is for a cautious match, with limited attacking output and little separating the sides for long periods. Barracas Central’s home advantage gives them the stronger position in the assessment, although the margin is narrow enough for a draw to remain a realistic outcome.

The scoring outlook points towards a low-scoring contest. A clean sheet appears likely, suggesting that one defensive error or a single decisive moment could shape the result. The most plausible scenarios are a narrow Barracas Central victory or a goalless draw, while a level score with both teams finding the net is also within the range of outcomes. The 1X signal reflects the balance of the forecast: Barracas Central are favoured to avoid defeat, but CA Aldosivi remain capable of making the game difficult and keeping the match closely contested.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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