Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.6% |
| 12 | 68.7% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.8% / 80.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.07.2026 away Racing Club 1:2
- 14.05.2026 away River Plate 0:2
- 11.05.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 2:0
- 26.04.2026 away Belgrano 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 home Barracas Central 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Belgrano 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Rosario Central 1:0
- 14.05.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:1
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at home vs CA River Plate (ARG) away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · at home | CA River Plate (ARG) · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–3 | 4–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.05.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 28.01.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 02.11.2025 CA River Plate (ARG) 0:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 18.04.2025 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:3 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 17.08.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:1 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 17.03.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 3:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata face CA River Plate (ARG) in a Primera LPF, Clausura fixture that looks finely balanced but gives the visitors a slight edge. The assessment points toward a competitive contest, with the stronger overall position belonging to CA River Plate (ARG), although the gap is not decisive. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata should remain capable of making the match difficult, particularly if they can keep the game compact and avoid allowing the visitors to control the tempo.
The expected scoring level is medium, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains difficult to separate. That leaves several plausible paths through the match: a 1:1 draw stands out alongside a goalless result and a narrow 0:1 away victory. Overall, the balance of the analysis favors CA River Plate (ARG), but the draw is a meaningful possibility, making a result that protects against either an away win or a stalemate the most consistent interpretation.
What matters before kick-off
Clausura opening match results
Both clubs enter matchday two of the 2026 Torneo Clausura seeking recovery after opening-round defeats; River Plate lost at home to Barracas Central, while Gimnasia y Esgrima suffered a 2-1 loss against Racing.
Match officiating assignments
The 2026 Torneo Clausura matchday two fixture between Gimnasia and River Plate at the Juan Carmelo Zerillo Stadium will be refereed by Leandro Rey Hilfer, with Germán Delfino handling VAR duties.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.