CA Banfield — CA Sarmiento Junin: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 2.05 → now 2.15 |
| X | was 3.20 → now 2.90 |
| X2 | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
Match preview
CA Banfield go into this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight but credible edge over CA Sarmiento Junin. The assessment points toward a cautious contest rather than an open attacking game, with limited scoring expected from both sides. Banfield’s home advantage gives them the stronger position, although the gap between the teams appears narrow enough for a draw to remain a realistic outcome.
The scoring outlook makes a tight result particularly plausible. A 1-0 Banfield win and a 1-1 draw fit the overall picture, while a goalless match is also within the range of reasonable outcomes. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as balanced rather than decisive. Overall, CA Banfield have the clearer claim to avoid defeat, but CA Sarmiento Junin remain capable of making the match competitive through a disciplined, low-tempo approach.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.