Burnley FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers: Win probabilities, 16.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.4%
Home win
Burnley FC
X
26.2%
Draw
W2
44.4%
Away win
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.8%
Both teams to score
Yes58.0%
Totals 2.5
Over54.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.6% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Goal distribution model
Burnley FC × Wolverhampton Wanderers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
8.3%
0:2
7.3%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.5%
1
1:0
6.4%
1:1
12.4%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
4.9%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.6%
2:1
7.3%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
3.1%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
1.9%
3:1
3.1%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
1:29.2%
0:18.3%
0:27.3%
2:17.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.10.2026
Burnley FC
24th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Derby 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Swansea 1:3
- 08.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bristol City 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
5th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home West Brom 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sheffield United 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 01.09.2026 away West Ham 2:4
- 29.08.2026 home Stoke 4:1
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Wolverhampton Wanderers away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Wolverhampton Wanderers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 0.92 | 1.70 |
| xG against per match | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Burnley FC wins2
Draws3
Wolverhampton Wanderers wins1
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 24.05.2026 Burnley FC 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 26.10.2025 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2:3 Burnley FC
- 02.04.2024 Burnley FC 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 05.12.2023 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:0 Burnley FC
- 24.04.2022 Burnley FC 1:0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 01.12.2021 Wolverhampton Wanderers 0:0 Burnley FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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